So, in order :
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“le” indeed refers to Salamano. The context gives us enough hints to assert that.
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“Je le devinais” can be formulated as “Je l’apercevais”, but you do not need to put “in the act”. I would’ve said something like :
I could vaguely see him fixing something on the (dog’s) collar.
Your sentence is correct anyway.
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Still true – it describes what the narrator can see from Salamano during his action. “bent over the dog” is valid.
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Not sure of what you mean by “mental movement”, but the narrator is seeing Salamano doing something on the dog’s collar. This has indeed happened, but the narrator does not know what Salamano was actually doing.
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