The meaning you give is correct, but not well situated in time. See this translation of Larousse

• ça ne manquera pas = it’s sure OU bound to happen (in the future)
• j’ai dit qu’elle reviendrait et ça n’a pas manqué! = I said she’d come back and sure enough(she did)! (in the past)

So both a and b actually mean: it definitely did happen! (not "going to happen").

As for your second question, yes, you can change the verb and say

Cela n’a pas manqué de faire (des vagues, par exemple).

This sentence would mean it definitely did make waves. "ça ne manquera pas de + verbe" is quite common (I found many hits on Google). Note, however, that if you change the verb in "ça ne manquera pas d’arriver", it will cease to be an idiomatic phrase.

If you mean to say "It will definitely be made" the "correct" way would be:

Cela ne manquera pas d’être fait.

But this sentence doesn’t sound native at all. I found only one poor hit on Google. There are much better ways of saying that in French.